Thursday, December 11, 2014

Similarities in the 1998 and 2016 Presidential Election Survey


The recent surveys conducted for the 2016 presidential elections brings to mind the polls taken by the same research groups for the 1998 vote. The main protagonists in 1998 were then Vice President Joseph “Erap” Ejercito Estrada and Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, while for 2016 are incumbent Vice President Jejomar Binay and Senator Grace Poe. Same positions then and now – vice president and senator.

In the surveys for the 1998 vote, Erap led GMA most of the time by just the slimmest of margins, as this table would show:

Period
Erap
GMA
September 1996
19%
14%
December 1996
17%
17%
April 1997
23%
22%
September 1997
19%
19%
January 1998
18%
15%

Noteworthy was the fact that the would be standard-bearer of the then ruling political party languished near the cellar with the following survey results: September 1996 – 1%; December 1996 – 2%; April 1997 – 5%; September 1997 – 3%; and, January 1998 – 6%.

GMA was eventually chosen as the running-mate of Lakas-NUCD standard-bearer Jose De Venecia, Jr., and led the vice presidential race from start to finish.

For the 1998 presidential campaign, the surveys showed the following:

Period
Erap
JDV
March 1998
28%
14%
April 1998
30%
12%
May 1998
33%
15%

Erap won the May 1998 presidential elections, and an analysis of the surveys and official results would indicate that those who selected GMA in the early surveys were split between Erap and JDV when the then Senator chose to slide down to the vice presidency.

Going back to the present surveys, here are the initial results for the incumbent vice president and senator:

Period
Binay
Poe
June-July 2014
41%
12%
September 2014
31%
10%
November 2014
26%
18%

Significantly, the leading presidential candidate of the ruling Liberal Party, just like the standard-bearer of the ruling Lakas-NUCD in 1998, also suffers with the following survey results: June- July 2014 – 7%; September 2014 – 13%; and November 2014 – 6%.

Is this a trend? Will the 2016 results be the same as 1998? Or is it too early to say?

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