In late 2015, I wrote a political observation that then leading presidential contender VP Jojo Binay’s numbers in the surveys have reached a plateau. I also asserted that if no effective intervention is carried-out, Binay’s candidacy will plummet. I also suggested the immediate institutionalization of a comprehensive organizing campaign in key areas in Luzon and the Visayas that will arrest a possible free fall in Binay’s numbers and help him regain the momentum. My observation and recommendation were dismissed outright, and the campaign went on.
Binay leaders were tasked to gather and submit names, addresses, contact numbers and other details. The proposal to give IDs was totally ignored. Also, the suggestion to focus on local issues during campaign sorties fell on deaf ears. The “Makati model” campaign continued but soon it was ridiculed. In one community, for example, Binay told the audience, “Gagawin ko dito ang ginawa ko sa Makati. Maganda at maayos.” Then he asked, “Gusto nyo ba na maging tulad ng Makati itong lugar nyo?” The 1,000 plus audience answered, “Ayaw!” Then they laughed.
The disconnect was then complete. As projected, the Binay campaign suffered a free fall and he finished 4th in the presidential race.
One can argue that everything “including the kitchen sink and the toilet bowl” were thrown against Binay. But very much of the same issues were also hurled against Erap in 1997-1998 and Noynoy in 2009-2010. To an extent, Gloria faced the same odds against FPJ in 2004. Erap, Gloria and Noynoy prevailed because of big parallel organizations that supported their respective presidential campaigns.
With respect to the 2022 presidential elections, I believe it is too early to predict a possible outcome. But having said that, I think there are some wannabes who do not stand a chance at this juncture. One is closely identified to a political party and color (yellow) with an image that has been heavily-tainted with ineptitude, incompetence and corruption.
Political messaging and grassroots support will be the key factors to victory in the 2022 presidential election which will be the most expensive in the electoral history of the country.
